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Press coverage |
10 Emerging Technologies That Will Change the World February 2003 Technology Review identifies the developments that will dramatically affect the way we live and work—and profiles the leading innovators behind them. In labs around the world, researchers are busy creating technologies that will change the way we conduct business and live our lives. These are not the latest crop of gadgets and gizmos: they are completely new technologies that could soon transform computing, medicine, manufacturing, transportation, and our energy infrastructure. Nurturing the people and the culture needed to make the birth of such technological ideas possible is a messy endeavor, as MIT Media Lab cofounder Nicholas Negroponte explains in Creating a Culture of Ideas. But in this special section, Technology Review's editors have identified 10 emerging technologies that we predict will have a tremendous influence in the near future. For each, we've chosen a researcher or research team whose work and vision is driving the field. The profiles, on the following pages, offer a sneak preview of the technology world in the years and decades to come. Quantum Cryptography: The world runs on secrets. Governments, corporations, and individuals—to say nothing of Internet-based businesses—could scarcely function without secrecy. Nicolas Gisin of the University of Geneva is in the vanguard of a technological movement that could fortify the security of electronic communications. Gisin's tool, called quantum cryptography, can transmit information in such a way that any effort to eavesdrop will be detectable. The technology relies on quantum physics, which applies at atomic dimensions: any attempt to observe a quantum system inevitably alters it. After a decade of lab experiments, quantum cryptography is approaching feasibility. “We can now think about using it for practical purposes,” says Richard Hughes, a quantum cryptography pioneer at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico. Gisin—a physicist and entrepreneur—is leading the charge to bring the technology to market. The company that Gisin spun off from his University of Geneva laboratory in 2001, id Quantique, makes the first commercially available quantum-cryptography system, he says. The PC-size prototype system includes a random-number generator (essential for creating a decryption key) and devices that emit and detect the individual photons of light that make up the quantum signal. Conventional cryptographers concentrate on developing strong digital locks to keep information from falling into the wrong hands. But even the strongest lock is useless if someone steals the key. With quantum cryptography, “you can be certain that the key is secure,” says Nabil Amer, manager of the physics of information group at IBM Research. Key transmission takes the form of photons whose direction of polarization varies randomly. The sender and the intended recipient compare polarizations, photon by photon. Any attempt to tap this signal alters the polarizations in a way that the sender and intended recipient can detect. They then transmit new keys until one gets through without disturbance. Quantum cryptography is still ahead of its time. Nonquantum encryption schemes such as the public-key systems now commonly used in business have yet to be cracked. But the security of public-key systems relies on the inability of today's computers to work fast enough to break the code. Ultimately, as computers get faster, this defense will wear thin. Public-key encryption, Gisin says, “may be good enough today, but someone, someday, will find a way to crack it. Only through quantum cryptography is there a guarantee that the coded messages sent today will remain secret forever.” Gisin has no illusions about the challenges he faces. For one thing, quantum cryptography works only over the distance a light pulse can travel through the air or an optical fiber without a boost; the process of amplification destroys the quantum-encoded information. Gisin's team holds the world's distance record, having transmitted a quantum key over a 67-kilometer length of fiber connecting Geneva and Lausanne, Switzerland. The work of Gisin and others could usher in a new epoch of quantum information technology. Ironically, it is in part the prospect that superfast quantum computers will someday supply fantastic code-breaking power that drives Gisin and others to perfect their method of sheltering secret information. In the coming decades, Gisin contends, “e-commerce and e-government will be possible only if quantum communication widely exists.” Much of the technological future, in other words, depends on the science of secrecy. — Herb Brody |
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